JD's Market Pulse: Housing & Economic Update
For the week of April 24, 2023
“Confidence is 10% work and 90% delusion.”—Tina Fey, American actress, comedian, writer, and producer
📈 SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING STARTS UP
🏡 VEGAS SFR MEDIANS UP!
📉 ALL 3 MAJOR INDEXES DOWN LAST WEEK
🕵🏽 TIP OF THE WEEK: YOU MAY WANT AN ENERGY EFFICIENT HOME
SLIDING SIDEWAYS... Traders played a waiting game ahead of this week's big batch of Q1 corporate earnings reports, so stocks slid mostly sideways, with the three major indexes ending down just a tick.
Disappointing data included the most continuing jobless claims since November 2021, the weakest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index since May 2020, and the lowest Leading Economic Index since November 2020.
But we did get some better-than-expected corporate earnings, the first positive read in five months for the Empire State manufacturing index, and preliminary April IHS Markit Manufacturing and Services PMIs both showing growth.
The week ended with the Dow down 0.2%, to 33,809; the S&P 500 down 0.1%, to 4,134, and the Nasdaq down 0.4%, to 12,072.
Mimicking stocks, bond prices were off a tick overall, though the UMBS 5.5% ended UP 0.87, at $101.11. In Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged up after five weeks of declines.
It's important to remember that mortgage rates can be volatile, so make sure you stay up-to-date by talking to a mortgage professional, like Chuck! Give him a call at (702) 234-5335 for all your mortgage questions.
Single-family housing starts rose 2.7% in March, up for the second month in a row for the first time since 2021. With the drop in multi-units, overall starts were off a tick, but homes under construction remain near the highest level on record.
That backlog of projects tells why building permits fell in March. The National Association of Home Builders sentiment index rose for the fourth month,though still less than half the builders see conditions as good.
Sales of existing homes cooled in March after their big February surge. The good news for buyers was that median prices fell 0.9% from March 2022 and are down 12.7% from their mid-2022 peak.
The inventory of unsold existing homes rose 1.0% from the prior month to 980,000 at the end of March, or the equivalent of 2.6 months' supply at the current monthly sales pace. (Nationally, we remain in a low inventory resale housing market)
DID YOU KNOW… A recent study by Zillow found that some two-thirds of the millennial and Gen Z Americans polled say it’s still realistic to think they can buy a home in the next five years.
Sales remain steady while inventory continues falling keeping the Southern Nevada market at an elevated Absorption Rate Figure
Current ARF:
44.34% 🤯
The current absorption rate for the Southern Nevada market the past 30 days is 42.85%, up 1.49% (149bps) from the last absorption rate reading on April 17, 2023 (42.85%).
There is about 2.25 months of inventory available on the Southern Nevada housing market. Historically, 6 months of inventory is considered an even buyers & seller’s market, although we at D&A believe that 4 months is an even buyers & sellers market.
A market with an absorption rate at or above 20% is typically called a seller’s market, whereas an absorption rate below 15% signals a buyer’s market. 15-20% in considered an even market.
Each week we will update the current median price for the current month. Keep in mind the majority of sales occur at the end of the month, so official numbers will be published on the first Monday of each month. Median prices are of 1,743 sold listings from the MLS as of April 24, 2023.
Currently for the month of April 2023
Single Family
$430,000
+$5,000
Up from March of $425,000
Condo
$225,000
Unch
Unchanged from March of $225,000
Townhomes
$320,000
Unch
Unchanged from March of $320,000
Southern Nevada housing inventory continues its downward slide from the October 2022 peak. Accepted contingent offers hovered near the 1,000 mark, just under at 984 accepted offers. Total sales volume was also up 7% month/month and price decreases dipped 7.83%.
There are currently 5,952 active single family homes, townhomes, condominiums, high-rises, manufactured and multi-families available on the market. Available rental properties also dipped month/month to 2,991 active rentals on the market, a decrease of 2.76% compared to four weeks ago.
As of April 24, 2023, there are currently active (4w change):
4,269 Single Family Homes (-352) -7.62%
650 Condos (-75) -10.34%
452 Townhouses (-39) -7.94%
213 Manufactured Homes (-29) -11.98%
314 High Rise Units (-20) -5.99%
54 Multiple Dwellings (-1) -3.64%
2,438 Parcels of Land (-75) -2.98%
2,991 Rentals On Market (-85) -2.76%
Past Seven Days Market Watch (4w change):
741 New Listings (+23) +3.20%
173 Back on Market (-26) -13.06%
83 Price Increases (+27) +48.21%
518 Price Decreases (-44) -7.83%
984 Accepted an Offer (+136) +16.04%
659 Sold (+43) +6.99%
87 Expired (-9) -9.38%
275 Taken Off Market (-10) -3.51%
This week, there are 160 less active residential resale properties on the market compared to the last read on April 17, 2023 for a total of 5,952 - a decrease of 2.62%.
Compared to the March 27, 2023 reading, there are 516 less active residential resale properties on the market, a decrease of 7.98%. Inventory continues sliding as sales continue increasing.
We get homes sold fast.
Call us at (702) 767-5557 to get your home listed and sold for top dollar.
ACCEPTED OFFER!
ACCEPTED OFFER!
NEW AND PENDING HOME SALES, HOME PRICES, INFLATION… Forecasts call for March New Home Sales to be off slightly, but for the Pending Home Salesindex of signed contracts on existing homes to move up. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index should show price increases leveling off in February. Inflation is expected to continue moderating in March according to PCE Prices, the Fed's favorite measure.
Since inflation is increasing the cost of goods and services, it may make sense to look for an energy-efficient home.
Energy prices have increased over the last year, so look for energy-efficient features in your home search.
If you’re looking to buy a home this year, let’s connect so you have a partner to help you consider which features are most important to you.
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. The futures market sees the Fed hiking a quarter percent in May, holding there in June, then cutting by a quarter percent in July, back to where we are now. Note: In the lower chart, a 68.3% probability of change is a 68.3% probability the rate will rise. Current rate is 4.75%-5.00%.
AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
May 3 5.00%-5.25%
Jun 14 5.00%-5.25%
Jul 26 5.00%-5.25%Probability of change from current policy:
AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
May 3 89.1%
Jun 14 92.0%
Jul 26 80.1%
With gratitude,
Jordan C. Dove, ABR® SFR®
MANAGING PRINCIPAL | REALTOR®
Dove & Associates Powered by Nationwide Realty
702.767.5557 | Jordan@DoveandAssociates.com
JordanDove.com | DoveandAssociates.comSubscribe to my YouTube Channel
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