💰 Wealth & Walls: Your Exclusive Weekly Economic & Real Estate Update
For the week of July 15, 2024
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🕵🏼♀️ TIP OF THE WEEK:
How Do Presidential Elections Impact the Housing Market? (Infographic)
INFLATION DOWN, STOCKS UP... Month-over-month inflation reversed course for the first time in more than four years, so stocks rallied on traders’ expectations we're getting closer to the first rate cut from the Fed.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) dipped 0.1% from May to June, dropping the annual inflation rate to 3.0%. This was driven by a decrease in gasoline prices, which was enough to counterbalance gains in food and shelter prices.
Prices overall are still more than 20% higher than they were in 2020, keeping University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at a low read for July. But Initial Jobless Claims fell, showing the labor market is holding up.
The week ended with the Dow UP 1.6%, to 40,001; the S&P 500 UP 0.9%, to 5,615; and the Nasdaq UP 0.2%, to 18,398.
Bonds went higher too, the 30-Year UMBS 6.0% UP 0.17, to $100.29. In Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell below its level of a year ago.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of applications for purchase loans increased on a seasonally adjusted basis from the week before. Plus, their index of refinance applications came in 28% ahead of a year ago.
Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index rose in June, landing just shy of its highest read this year. The report noted, “the topline findings…showed a modest uptick in optimism on both homebuying and home-selling conditions.”
Altos Research reports there are now 40% more homes on the market than a year ago, as more sellers show up. However, 38% of the listings have cut their asking price from the original list price.
DID YOU KNOW… A recent survey revealed about 92% of Generation Z Americans (under age 28) said owning a home someday is important, but only 18% said they could currently afford one.
CURRENT 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE (CNBC)
Last Monday's Close: 7.01
Note: Mortgage rates fluctuate frequently and are based on several factors and will vary from borrower-to-borrower.
As of Mon. July 15, 2024 11:32 AM PST
OVERVIEW:
Are you wondering if the upcoming election will have an impact on the housing market? Here’s what history tells us you need to know if you’re considering a move. Data shows home sales slow in November but quickly bounce back and rise the following year. Prices usually keep climbing. And mortgage rates typically come down slightly. Presidential elections have only a small and temporary impact on the housing market. If you have questions, let’s connect.
HOME BUILDING, RETAIL SALES, JOBLESS CLAIMS... Economists predict both Housing Starts and Building Permits will perk back up in June. Retail Sales are forecast down a tick for June, but up a tick taking out auto sales. Initial Jobless Claims should edge up, the sign of a weakening labor market the Fed wants to see.
Each week we will update the current median price for the current month. These properties include all of the Southern Nevada MLS whereby the above graphic is only Clark County, NV MLS properties.
Keep in mind the majority of sales occur at the end of the month, so official numbers will be published on the first Monday of each month. The current median prices are calculated from 1,107 sold July listings in from the MLS as of July 15, 2024. (All counties in the Southern Nevada LVR MLS, not just Clark as referenced in the above graphic.)
CURRENT JULY MEDIAN PRICES
Single Family
$475,650
+$650
Up from June of $475,000
Condo
$255,000
-$500
Down from June of $255,000
Townhomes
$355,500
-$2,490
Down from June of $357,990
This week, we are going to analyze the data compared to last week's reading on July 8, 2024 for a micro-data perspective on current market conditions.
As of July 15, 2024, there are currently active (W/w change):
4,710 Single Family Homes (+181) +3.99%
1,006 Condos (+19) +1.92%
505 Townhouses (+19) +3.91%
221 Manufactured Homes (+7) +3.27%
441 High Rise Units (-11) -2.43%
83 Multiple Dwellings (+6) +7.79%
2,121 Parcels of Land (+19) +0.90%
3,453 Rentals On Market (+24) +0.70%
Past Seven Days Market Watch (W/w change):
1,107 New Listings (+147) +16.89%
210 Back on Market (+51) +32.07%
117 Price Increases (+4) +3.54%
834 Price Decreases (+222) +36.27%
768 Accepted an Offer (-20) -2.53%
662 Sold (+108) +19.49%
59 Expired (-161) -73.18%
336 Taken Off Market (+84) +33.33%
This reading, there are 221 more active residential resale properties on the market compared to last week's reading on July 8, 2024 for a total of 6,966 available properties - increasing inventory week-over-week by 3.27%.
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Last week's inflation numbers have the Fed funds futures market strongly anticipating the first rate cut in September, followed by another trim in November. Note: In the lower chart, the 6.7% probability of change is a 93.3% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 5.25%-5.50%.
With gratitude,
Jordan C. Dove, ABR® SFR®
MANAGING PRINCIPAL | REALTOR®
Dove & Associates Powered by Nationwide Realty
702.767.5557 | Jordan@DoveandAssociates.com
JordanDove.com | DoveandAssociates.com
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3960 E. Patrick Ln. Ste. 204
Las Vegas, NV 89120
NV Lic. # S.0180594